Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Current price
0.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$192K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how resolution is determined using a specific named source: the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard at a precise snapshot time on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET with style control turned off. The criteria include explicit and objective tie-breaking mechanisms, descending from leaderboard rank to unrounded granular arena scores, and finally alphabetical ordering of company names if an exact tie persists. A fallback mechanism is provided if the site is temporarily or permanently offline, but the primary mechanics leave virtually no room for decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mistral will own the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of 2026. Resolution features specific tiebreaking criteria down to unrounded Arena scores and alphabetical order.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Mistral is the company that owns the model occupying first place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the check time. The market resolves No if any other company occupies first place. Rankings are determined primarily by leaderboard rank from the text leaderboard with style control off, followed by granular unrounded Arena scores if tied, and alphabetical order of company names as a final tiebreaker. The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard decides the outcome. If the leaderboard is temporarily offline at check time, resolution waits until it is back online; if permanently offline, another source will be used.
Key dates
- Leaderboard check time: — The leaderboard table is checked to determine the first-place model.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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