Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$119K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide precise criteria for determining the outcome, defining the 'best AI model' specifically by its rank on the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard with style control disabled. Resolution is tied to a specific timestamp on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Detailed tie-breaking procedures are defined in sequence: leaderboard rank, granular unrounded Arena score, and finally alphabetical ordering of company names. The only notable point of caution is that if the specified website becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will rely on an unspecified alternative source.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Microsoft will own the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on December 31, 2026, utilizing precise tiebreaking rules including unrounded scores and alphabetical company ordering.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Microsoft owns the model that occupies first place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the check time. The market resolves to No if any other company owns the top-ranked model. Rankings are taken from the text leaderboard with style control turned off. Models are ordered first by leaderboard rank. If models tie on rank, they are ordered by Arena score, including granular unrounded values. If a tie persists, alphabetical order of company names serves as the final tiebreaker. The primary resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard checked on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. If the source is offline, the market remains open until it is available; if permanently unavailable, another source will be used.
Key dates
- Leaderboard check time: — Leaderboard rankings are recorded to determine the winning company.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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