Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$126.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify a single named public benchmark, the exact URL and tab to check, and the required setting of style control off. An exact check time of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET is established, along with a detailed hierarchy for breaking ties using granular Arena scores followed by alphabetical ordering. A fallback mechanism accounts for potential site downtime. Position holders should simply be aware of the mechanical tie-breaker rules and the fallback clause stating that an alternative source may be chosen only if the primary leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether ByteDance will own the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of December 2026.
How it resolves
This market resolves Yes if ByteDance owns the model occupying first place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the check time. It resolves No if any other company owns the first-place model. Rankings are taken from the text leaderboard with style control disabled, ordered primarily by leaderboard rank. Ties are broken first by exact unrounded Arena scores, and if still tied, by alphabetical order of the company names. The market is evaluated by checking the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. If the leaderboard is temporarily offline at check time, the market remains open until it returns; if permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be used.
Key dates
- Check time: — The leaderboard table is checked at 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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