Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$116.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify an exact definition for what constitutes the top AI model, pointing directly to a specific leaderboard URL and tab with exact filter parameters (text leaderboard with style control off). Resolution occurs at an exact date and time, with comprehensive and unambiguous tie-breaking criteria established (leaderboard rank, granular score, and alphabetical ordering). A clear fallback procedure is provided in case the website is offline at the scheduled check time.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Baidu will own the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2026. Resolution relies on specific leaderboard settings and tiebreaker rules, including unrounded arena scores and alphabetical company ordering.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Baidu owns the model in first place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard under the text leaderboard tab with style control off on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The market resolves No if another company owns the model in first place. Standings are decided primarily by leaderboard rank, with ties broken first by underlying unrounded Arena scores and then by alphabetical order of company names. If the resolution source is unavailable at check time, the market stays open until it comes back online and resolves on the first check. If it becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be used.
Key dates
- Leaderboard evaluation time: — Leaderboard standings are checked at 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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