Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Current price
1.6¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.6%
$169.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how 'best AI model' is determined by pointing to a specific URL (the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard with style control off) at an exact date and time (December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET). The sorting hierarchy is explicitly laid out: models are ordered by leaderboard rank, then by granular unrounded Arena score, and finally broken alphabetically by company name if still tied. The only potential uncertainty arises if the primary website becomes permanently unavailable, in which case the decider would select an alternate resolution source.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether an AI model owned by xAI holds first place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of December 2026. Resolution features a strict multi-step tiebreaking process ending in alphabetical order of company names.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a model owned by xAI holds the number one rank on the leaderboard at the check time. The market resolves to No if a model owned by any other company holds the number one rank. Models are evaluated using the Rank section of the text leaderboard with style control disabled. Ties are broken first by unrounded Arena scores and finally by alphabetical order of the company names. If the leaderboard is temporarily offline at check time, the market remains open until it returns online and resolves on the first available check. If the leaderboard is permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be used. Resolution is decided by data from the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard.
Key dates
- Leaderboard check time: — The leaderboard is checked at 12:00 PM ET to determine the top-ranked model.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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