Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Current price
0.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.35%
$133.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the exact metric, tab, URL, settings (style control off), and snapshot timestamp (December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET) used to evaluate the outcome. Detailed tie-breaking procedures are articulated in order of rank, raw Arena score, and finally alphabetical company name order. The primary source is explicitly defined, with an orderly contingency plan if the site is temporarily down at the time of evaluation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Z.ai will own the highest-ranking model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of December 2026, incorporating specific multi-stage tiebreakers based on unrounded scores and alphabetical company names.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Z.ai is the company that occupies first place under the established ranking system at the check time. The market resolves to No if another company occupies first place. Models are ordered primarily by their rank in the text section with style control turned off. Ties on rank are broken by Arena score, including granular unrounded values, and any remaining ties are broken by alphabetical order of company names. The market is evaluated using the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. If the website is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it comes back online, and if permanently unavailable, another source will be used.
Key dates
- Check time: — The leaderboard table is checked at 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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