Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Current price
0.4¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.4%
$148.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market defines the best model strictly through a named public benchmark: the top rank on the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard at exactly 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The rules specify the exact tab and view settings to consult, how to break ties using granular unrounded Arena scores, and a deterministic alphabetical tiebreaker if scores remain identical. A backup plan is provided if the site is temporarily down at the check time, though permanent unavailability defaults to unspecified alternative sourcing.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether DeepSeek owns the top-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of December 2026. Resolution features strict multi-tier tiebreaking rules down to granular scores and alphabetical order.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if DeepSeek occupies first place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard under the text section with style control turned off at the check time. The market resolves to No if another company holds first place. Models are ranked primarily by their leaderboard rank; ties are broken first by unrounded granular Arena scores, and then by alphabetical order of the company names. The outcome is determined by the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard checked on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. If the leaderboard is unavailable at that time, the market remains open until it is back online, or resolves via another source if permanently unavailable.
Key dates
- Leaderboard check time: — The leaderboard is checked at 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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