Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$103K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes the best model by referencing a specific public source, the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard, with exact navigation instructions including the specific URL, tab, and style control setting. A precise timestamp of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET is designated for checking the table. The rules also establish a deterministic sequence of tiebreakers covering leaderboard rank, unrounded granular scores, and finally alphabetical ordering of company names. Downtime procedures are explicitly outlined, directing the decider to wait for the site to return online before resolving.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Meituan will own the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of December 2026. Resolution relies on a strict tiebreaker hierarchy that includes unrounded Arena scores and alphabetical order of company names.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Meituan owns the model occupying first place on the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard with style control off when checked. The market resolves to No if another company owns the first-place model. Rankings are determined primarily by leaderboard rank, secondarily by granular unrounded Arena score, and finally by alphabetical order of company names. The deciding source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard checked on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. If the source is temporarily offline, the market remains open until it returns; if permanently offline, another source will be used.
Key dates
- Check time: — The leaderboard table is checked at 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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