Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Last captured price
5.35¢
−2.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.35%
$217K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide a precise, objective definition for determining the leading model using the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard with style control turned off at a specific date and time (December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET). Tiebreaker steps are clearly laid out, progressing from rank to unrounded granular arena scores, and finally to alphabetical order by company name. Participants should note that if the primary leaderboard website is offline at check time, resolution will pause until it returns, or rely on an unspecified alternative source if the site becomes permanently unavailable.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether an AI model owned by OpenAI holds the top rank on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of 2026, using specific tiebreaking rules if necessary.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if an OpenAI-owned model occupies first place on the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard with style control off when checked. The market resolves to No if a model owned by any other company holds first place. Models are ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank; ties are broken first by exact unrounded Arena scores, and then by alphabetical order of company names. The check takes place on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET using the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. If the website is temporarily offline, resolution waits for the first check after it returns; if permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be used.
Key dates
- Leaderboard evaluation time: — Leaderboard is checked on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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