Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Current price
47.5¢
+2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 47.5%
$349.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how the top model is determined by specifying the exact website, URL tab, and filter setting on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at a precise timestamp on December 31, 2026. An explicit tie-breaking sequence is established, progressing from leaderboard rank to granular unrounded arena scores, and finally to alphabetical company name ordering. The primary condition to monitor is website uptime at the designated check time, though the rules provide a direct delay mechanism if the site is temporarily down, resorting to an unspecified fallback source only if the platform becomes permanently unavailable.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic owns the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard as of December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Anthropic owns the model occupying first place on the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard at check time. It resolves No if another company owns the first-place model. Models are evaluated using the Rank section with style control off. In case of rank ties, the underlying unrounded Arena score is used, followed by alphabetical order of company names as the final tiebreaker. If the leaderboard is temporarily offline, the check is delayed until it returns; if permanently unavailable, another source will be used. The market resolves based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard.
Key dates
- Leaderboard check time: — Checked at 12:00 PM ET
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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