Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Current price
0.4¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.4%
$145.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on a specific public leaderboard checked at an exact date and time (December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET) under explicit configuration settings (text leaderboard with style control off). The rules establish a clear, multi-step tie-breaking hierarchy that evaluates leaderboard rank, unrounded granular arena scores, and ultimately alphabetical ordering of company names. While the rules permit substituting another source if the specified website becomes permanently unavailable, the primary evaluation path is unambiguous and strictly defined.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Alibaba owns the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of 2026. Resolution relies on specific leaderboard tab settings, with tiebreakers using unrounded Arena scores and alphabetical ordering.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Alibaba owns the model that occupies first place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the check time. The market resolves No if another company owns the first-place model. Rankings are taken from the Rank section on the text Leaderboard tab with style control turned off. Models are ranked primarily by leaderboard rank, with ties broken by granular, unrounded Arena scores, and remaining ties broken by alphabetical order of company names. If the leaderboard is unavailable at the check time, the market remains open until it returns online, or resolves via an alternate source if permanently offline. The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard decides the outcome.
Key dates
- Leaderboard check time: — The leaderboard table is checked on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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