Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Current price
0.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.35%
$156.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide precise resolution criteria based on a specific URL, tab, and configuration setting (style control off) on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at an exact timestamp (December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET). Explicit tiebreaking rules are defined in order of leaderboard rank, unrounded Arena score, and finally alphabetical order of company names. The only minor consideration is the backup clause allowing resolution via an alternate source if the primary leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Moonshot will own the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of December 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Moonshot owns the model that occupies first place on the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard at the scheduled check time. The market resolves No if another company owns the first-place model. Rankings are determined using the Rank section with style control off, ordered primarily by leaderboard rank. Ties are broken first by granular, unrounded Arena scores, and then by the alphabetical order of company names. The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard decides the outcome. If the leaderboard is offline at check time, the market stays open until it comes back online; if it is permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be used.
Key dates
- Leaderboard evaluation time: — Leaderboard rank is checked to determine the first-place company.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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