How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
13 live outcomes · highest priced: 0 (0 bps) at 97% · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $54.5M total volume
About this event
This event tracks the total number of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts implemented during calendar year 2026. Markets measure specific counts of 25-basis-point cuts, ranging from zero cuts up to 12 or more cuts.
How the outcomes relate
Markets represent mutually exclusive exact counts of 25-basis-point cuts across 2026. Because each market resolves based on the exact final tally of cuts, at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Markets resolve based on the exact amount of 25 bps rate cuts in 2026, including scheduled FOMC meetings through December 2026 and emergency rate cuts outside regular meetings. A 50 bps reduction counts as two cuts, while a cut between 1-24 bps counts as one cut. A market resolves to No early if more cuts occur than the specified strike, making that exact outcome impossible. Markets remain open through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to account for emergency actions.
Key dates
- Market Close: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 (0 bps) | 97% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| 1 (25 bps) | 1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| 2 (50 bps) | 1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| 4 (100 bps) | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| 3 (75 bps) | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| 5 (125 bps) | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| 6 (150 bps) | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| 7 (175 bps) | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| 8 (200 bps) | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| 9 (225 bps) | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| 10 (250 bps) | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| 11 (275 bps) | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| 12+ (300+ bps) | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low |