Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$4.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how rate cuts are tallied, specifying that each 25 basis point reduction counts as one cut, 50 basis points counts as two, and any cut between 1 and 24 basis points counts as one. Official Federal Reserve statements and publications serve as the authoritative resolution source. The market explicitly accounts for unscheduled emergency cuts by staying open through December 31, 2026, and includes an early resolution trigger resolving to No only if the number of realized cuts strictly exceeds nine before year-end.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements exactly 9 rate cuts in 2026. A 25 basis point reduction counts as one cut, any cut between 1 and 24 basis points also counts as one cut, and emergency cuts outside scheduled FOMC meetings are included in the total.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve executes exactly 9 rate cuts in 2026, including actions at the December meeting and any unscheduled emergency cuts. Each 25 basis point cut counts as one cut, a 50 basis point cut counts as two cuts, and cuts between 1 and 24 basis points count as one cut. The market resolves to No if the total number of cuts in 2026 is not 9. The market will resolve early to No if more than 9 cuts occur during the year, making the target impossible. The outcome is determined by official FOMC statements and target federal funds rate data published by the Federal Reserve.
Key dates
- Market close: — The market remains open until 11:59 PM ET to account for potential emergency rate actions.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official website of the Federal Reserve
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