Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Current price
0.2¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.2%
$3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market defines rate cuts in standard 25 basis point increments and cites official Federal Reserve meeting statements and Open Market operations pages as the direct resolution source. It clearly accounts for larger cuts (e.g., 50 bps counts as two cuts) and specifies that emergency cuts outside regular FOMC meetings count toward the 2026 total. A specific rule to note is that any cut between 1 and 24 basis points counts as one full cut. Additionally, the market will resolve early to No if the total number of cuts in 2026 exceeds three before the year ends, but otherwise remains open through December 31, 2026, to monitor for any late emergency actions.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve executes exactly three 25 basis point rate cuts in 2026. Rate cuts are measured in 25 bps increments, with cuts between 1 and 24 bps counting as one cut, and emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings are included.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve implements exactly three 25 basis point rate cuts during 2026, including cuts from the December meeting and any unscheduled emergency cuts. A 50 basis point cut counts as two cuts, while any cut between 1 and 24 basis points inclusive counts as one cut. The market resolves to No if the total number of rate cuts in 2026 is not exactly three. The market will resolve early to No if more than three cuts take place before the year ends. Resolution is determined by FOMC statements and the official target federal funds rate data published by the Federal Reserve.
Key dates
- Market close: — Market remains open until this time to capture any unscheduled emergency rate cuts.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.