Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Current price
0.25¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$2.8M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves using official Federal Reserve statements and data published on named Federal Reserve web pages. The rules clearly define how rate reductions map to cut counts, specifying that standard 25 basis point cuts are the baseline unit, a 50 basis point reduction counts as two cuts, and smaller cuts between 1 and 24 basis points count as one cut. Emergency unscheduled cuts are explicitly included. Positions should note that the market resolves early to No if the cumulative number of cuts exceeds four before the end of 2026, and the market tracks gross rate cuts across the calendar year through December 31, 2026.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements exactly four 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026. Rate cuts are calculated in 25 bps increments—where a 50 bps cut counts as two cuts and any cut between 1–24 bps counts as one cut—and emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings are included.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve makes exactly four 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026, including scheduled meetings through December and any emergency cuts. For counting purposes, a 50-basis-point cut counts as two cuts, and any cut between 1 and 24 basis points counts as one cut. The market resolves to No if the final total of 25-basis-point cuts in 2026 is not four. The market resolves early to No if more than four cuts occur before year-end, making the outcome impossible. The outcome is determined using official FOMC statements and the target federal funds rate data published on the Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- Market close: — Market remains open until 11:59 PM ET to capture any emergency rate cuts.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the Federal Reserve official website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.