Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market resolves based on official Federal Reserve announcements and statements available directly on official Federal Reserve website URLs. The rules clearly define how rate changes are counted: standard 25 basis point increments, counting 50 basis points as two cuts, and treating any partial cut between 1 and 24 basis points as one cut. Both scheduled FOMC meetings and emergency inter-meeting cuts are tracked through December 31, 2026. Note that this is an exact-count market rather than an 'at least' threshold; the rules specify an early resolution to No if more cuts occur during the year than the target strike.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve will execute exactly 10 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026. Rate reductions are calculated in 25-basis-point increments, including emergency actions and fractional cuts of 1–24 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve executes exactly 10 rate cuts in 2026. Cuts are measured in units of 25 basis points, where a 50 bps cut counts as 2 cuts, cuts between 1–24 bps inclusive count as 1 cut, and emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings are included through December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if the total number of cuts in 2026 is any number other than 10. The market will resolve early to No if more than 10 cuts have already occurred. The deciding source is official FOMC statements and target federal funds rate data published on the Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- Market close: — Market remains open until this time to account for emergency rate cuts
Resolution source
Federal Reserve FOMC statements and official website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.