Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Current price
97.05¢
+0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 97.05%
$8.9M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how interest rate changes are measured, defining 25 basis point increments, handling larger or smaller cut sizes explicitly, and including unscheduled emergency cuts. Resolution relies directly on official Federal Reserve meeting statements and target rate publications via provided links. The market also includes an early resolution clause to resolve negative immediately if any rate cut occurs during 2026, or at year-end if no cuts take place.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements zero interest rate cuts throughout 2026. Rate reductions are calculated in 25 basis point increments, and any emergency actions or fractional reductions between 1 and 24 basis points also count toward the total cut count.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve makes zero interest rate cuts during 2026, including scheduled meetings and any emergency actions through December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if the Fed executes one or more rate cuts during 2026. A reduction of 50 basis points counts as two cuts of 25 basis points, and any reduction between 1 and 24 basis points inclusive counts as one cut. The market resolves early to No as soon as a rate cut occurs, since zero cuts becomes impossible. Resolution is determined by FOMC statements and the target federal funds rate data published on the Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- Year-end market close: — The market remains open until 11:59 PM ET to capture any emergency rate actions.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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