Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$4.1M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on official Federal Reserve statements and published target rate changes. However, there are two mechanics to note. First, rate cuts are measured in 25 basis point units (e.g., a 50 bps cut counts as two cuts, and cuts between 1 and 24 bps count as one cut), which departs from a simple count of meeting decisions. Second, the rules include standard early resolution boilerplate stating the market will resolve to 'No' if more cuts occur than the strike, a rule meant for exact-count markets that conflicts logically with an 'or more' question. In practice, the question asks for 12 or more cuts, but participants should be mindful of how fractional rate changes and early resolution rules are administered.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements 12 or more 25-basis-point interest rate cuts during 2026. It unusually treats cuts of 1 to 24 basis points as a full cut and counts emergency inter-meeting cuts toward the total.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve makes 12 or more rate cuts during 2026. Cuts are measured in 25-basis-point increments, meaning a 50-basis-point cut counts as two cuts, while any cut between 1 and 24 basis points counts as one cut. Both scheduled FOMC meeting cuts (including December 2026) and unscheduled emergency cuts count toward the total. The market resolves to No if fewer than 12 cuts occur by the close of 2026. The market will resolve early to No if the required threshold becomes impossible according to the rules. The outcome is determined by official FOMC statements and the Federal Reserve target federal funds rate publications.
Key dates
- Market close: — Market remains open until 11:59 PM ET to account for potential emergency rate cuts.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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