Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Current price
0.45¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.45%
$3.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how rate cuts are quantified, defining a standard cut as 25 basis points and explicitly noting that a 50 basis point reduction counts as two cuts, while smaller cuts between 1 and 24 basis points count as one cut. Emergency rate cuts outside scheduled meetings are explicitly included through the end of 2026. The resolution relies directly on official Federal Reserve meeting statements and open market rate announcements via provided links, leaving virtually no source discretion. The market also includes a clear early resolution clause resolving to No if the cumulative number of cuts exceeds the specified target before year-end.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements exactly two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2026. Rate cuts are calculated in 25 bps increments, cuts between 1 and 24 bps count as one cut, and emergency unscheduled cuts are included.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve executes exactly two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2026, including scheduled FOMC meeting decisions and any emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings. A single 50 basis point cut counts as two 25 basis point cuts, and any cut between 1 and 24 basis points inclusive counts as one cut. The market resolves to No if the final total of cuts is not exactly two. The market resolves early to No as soon as more than two cuts have occurred, making the target impossible. The outcome is determined by FOMC statements and target federal funds rate data published by the Federal Reserve.
Key dates
- Market close: — The market remains open through 11:59 PM ET to account for any emergency rate cuts.
Resolution source
Federal Reserve (FOMC statements and official website)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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