Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$5.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution is determined strictly by official Federal Reserve announcements and statements published on the Fed website. The rules provide precise conversion mechanics for rate changes, specifying that 50 basis points equal two cuts and any fractional reduction between 1 and 24 basis points counts as one cut. Unscheduled emergency cuts are explicitly accounted for, with the market remaining open through December 31, 2026, to capture any year-end moves. Additionally, an early resolution rule allows the market to resolve to No if the total number of cuts exceeds 11 before the year ends. The criteria are unambiguous and rely on a definitive institutional source.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements exactly 11 rate cuts (measured in 25-basis-point units) during 2026. Cuts between 1 and 24 basis points count as one cut, and emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings are included in the total.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve implements exactly 11 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, including cuts from scheduled FOMC meetings through December and any emergency cuts. Cuts between 1 and 24 basis points count as one cut, and larger reductions count as multiple cuts in 25 bps increments (for example, a 50 bps cut counts as two cuts). The market resolves to No if the total number of cuts in 2026 is not exactly 11. It resolves early to No if more than 11 cuts occur before year-end, making the strike impossible. Resolution is determined by FOMC statements and rate data published on the official Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- Market close: — Market remains open until this time to account for potential emergency rate cuts.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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