Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Current price
0.15¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on official Federal Reserve statements and published data from the Federal Reserve website. The rules clearly specify how cut quantities are calculated, defining them in 25 basis point increments (with a 50 basis point reduction counting as two cuts) and explicitly noting that any reduction between 1 and 24 basis points counts as one cut. Both regular FOMC meetings and emergency unscheduled actions through December 31, 2026, are included. There is an early resolution provision that resolves the market to 'No' if the cumulative number of cuts exceeds five before the year ends, as reaching exactly five would become mathematically impossible under these definitions. The authoritative sources and numerical definitions leave very little room for dispute.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve will make exactly five 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026. Resolution is unusual because cut quantities are calculated by basis point increments—where cuts of 1–24 basis points count as one cut and larger cuts count proportionally—and emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings are included.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve makes exactly five rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026. Cuts made during the December meeting and emergency rate cuts outside scheduled FOMC meetings count toward the total. Every 25 basis points of rate reduction counts as one cut, a 50-basis-point cut counts as two cuts, and any cut between 1 and 24 basis points inclusive counts as one cut. The market resolves to No if the final total of cuts in 2026 is not exactly five. The market resolves early to No if more than five cuts occur before the end of the year. The deciding source is FOMC statements and the target federal funds rate published by the Federal Reserve.
Key dates
- Market close: — The market remains open until 11:59 PM ET to account for potential emergency rate actions.
Resolution source
Federal Reserve FOMC statements and official target federal funds rate publications
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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