Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$4.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves using official Federal Reserve statements and published target rate changes. The rules clearly define how rate cuts are counted in 25 basis point increments, note that larger cuts like 50 basis points count as multiple cuts, and include emergency actions through December 31, 2026. Participants should note two specific structural mechanics: cuts between 1 and 24 basis points are rounded up to count as a full cut, and the market features an early resolution clause that triggers a 'No' outcome as soon as the total number of cuts exceeds six.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve executes exactly 6 rate cuts (measured in 25-basis-point increments) in 2026. A non-standard rule counts any cut between 1 and 24 basis points as one full rate cut, larger cuts are converted into 25-basis-point equivalents, and unscheduled emergency cuts are included.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve makes exactly 6 rate cuts in 2026. Each 25 basis point cut counts as one cut, a cut between 1 and 24 basis points inclusive counts as one cut, larger reductions count proportionally in 25-basis-point increments (such as a 50 bps reduction counting as 2 cuts), and emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings count toward the total. The market resolves to No if the final number of cuts in 2026 is not exactly 6. The market resolves early to No as soon as more than 6 cuts have taken place during the year. Resolution is determined using FOMC statements following 2026 meetings and the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- Market close: — Market remains open until 11:59 PM ET to capture any emergency actions.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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