Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$3.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how rate cuts are quantified, defining larger cuts as multiples of 25 basis points and non-standard cuts of 1 to 24 basis points as single cuts. Emergency actions are explicitly included, and the market establishes a clear early resolution clause resolving to No if the count exceeds the target strike before year-end. Resolution is determined by official Federal Reserve Open Market Committee statements and official rate data, leaving no room for discretionary interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve will execute exactly 7 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026. Cuts of 1–24 basis points count as one cut, larger reductions count as multiples of 25 basis points, emergency cuts count, and the market resolves early to No if total cuts exceed 7.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve implements exactly 7 rate cuts in 2026, including cuts from scheduled meetings and any emergency actions. Each 25 basis point reduction counts as one cut, cuts between 1 and 24 basis points count as one cut, and larger cuts count in increments of 25 basis points. The market resolves to No if the total number of cuts in 2026 is any number other than 7. The market resolves to No early if more than 7 cuts occur before the end of the year. The outcome is decided using official Federal Open Market Committee statements and Federal Reserve target rate publications.
Key dates
- End of 2026 rate cut period: — The market remains open until this time to account for potential emergency rate cuts.
Resolution source
Federal Open Market Committee statements and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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