Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$3.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how interest rate cuts are measured, noting that cuts are counted in 25-basis-point increments and that cuts between 1 and 24 basis points count as one cut. Resolution relies directly on official Federal Reserve statements and data via specified links, leaving virtually no source discretion. The market features an early resolution condition resolving to No if the total number of cuts exceeds eight before the year concludes, and it remains open until the end of 2026 to capture any potential unscheduled emergency cuts.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements exactly eight 25-basis-point interest rate cuts in 2026. Rate reductions are converted into 25 bps equivalents, including counting any cut of 1 to 24 bps as one full cut.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve executes exactly eight 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026. Cuts are measured in 25 bps units, meaning a 50 bps cut counts as two cuts, and cuts between 1 and 24 bps count as one cut. Scheduled meeting decisions and emergency rate cuts outside regular FOMC meetings both count. The market resolves to No if the total number of cuts in 2026 is not eight. The market resolves early to No if more than eight cuts occur prior to the end of the year. The outcome is determined using FOMC statements and published target federal funds rate data from the Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- Market close: — The market remains open through 11:59 PM ET to capture any emergency rate actions in 2026.
Resolution source
Federal Reserve (FOMC statements and target federal funds rate publications)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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