Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Current price
1.15¢
+0.25¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.15%
$3.6M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves using official FOMC statements and data published directly on the Federal Reserve website. The rules clearly define how rate cuts are tallied, specifying that rate cuts are measured in 25 basis point increments (for example, a 50 basis point cut counts as two cuts, while any cut between 1 and 24 basis points counts as one cut). Emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings are included, and the market stays open until December 31, 2026, to capture any year-end actions. Position holders should be aware of the early resolution clause, which resolves the market to No immediately if cumulative rate cuts exceed one before the year ends.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements exactly one 25-basis-point rate cut in 2026. Reductions are calculated in 25-basis-point units, cuts between 1 and 24 basis points count as one full cut, and unscheduled emergency cuts are included.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve makes exactly one 25-basis-point rate cut in 2026. Cuts between 1 and 24 basis points count as one cut, a 50-basis-point cut counts as two cuts, and any emergency cuts outside scheduled FOMC meetings are included. The market resolves to No if the total number of cuts in 2026 is zero or more than one. The market resolves early to No if two or more cuts happen before year-end, making the outcome impossible. FOMC statements and the Federal Reserve target rate publications decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Market close: — Market closes at 11:59 PM ET to account for potential emergency rate cuts through the end of 2026.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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