Which company has the best AI model end of October?
19 live outcomes · highest priced: OpenAI at 1% · first close Oct 31, 2026 · $2.7M total volume
About this event
This event tracks which company will own the highest-ranking AI model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of October 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific company.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of mutually exclusive markets representing individual companies. Because resolution is based on which single company occupies first place under the specified ranking criteria and tiebreakers, at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if the named company owns the model holding first place on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard with style control off and filtered for 'Models' on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET; otherwise, it resolves to No. Models marked 'AutoEval' are excluded. Ties are broken first by unrounded Arena score, then by alphabetical order of company names. If the source is offline, resolution waits until it is back online; if permanently unavailable, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Key dates
- Leaderboard check time: — Checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Meta | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Alibaba | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Moonshot | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Baidu | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Z.ai | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Xiaomi | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| SpaceXAI | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| DeepSeek | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Amazon | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| ByteDance | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Nvidia | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Thinky | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| MiniMax | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Mistral | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Meituan | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Tencent | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| StepFun | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Microsoft | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| 78% | ▲ 3 | Low | Med | ||
| Anthropic | 21% | ▼ 1 | Low | Med |