Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$539.9 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide a precise, objective standard for resolution. They name a specific URL, target tab, view filter settings, exact check date and time, and clear exclusions such as models labeled AutoEval. Detailed tie-breaking rules using granular scores and alphabetical order remove ambiguity, and a backup plan is explicitly defined if the source website is temporarily or permanently unavailable.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether StepFun owns the highest-ranking AI model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of October 2026. Resolution relies on specific leaderboard settings and excludes models marked AutoEval.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if StepFun occupies first place in the rankings at the check time. It resolves to No if another company occupies first place. It resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. Rankings are determined from the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard tab with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for Models, disregarding any models marked AutoEval. Ties are broken first by unrounded Arena score, then by alphabetical order of company names. The designated resolution source decides the outcome. If the source is offline at the scheduled time, the market remains open until it is available.
Key dates
- Check time: — Leaderboard checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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