Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$11.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules provide highly specific, objective criteria. Resolution is anchored to a direct URL at an exact timestamp (October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET) with defined settings (style control set to none, filtered for models). The rules explicitly exclude models labeled AutoEval and outline deterministic tiebreaking procedures based on granular arena scores followed by alphabetical company order. Well-defined fallback procedures cover both temporary outages and permanent unavailability of the primary source.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Baidu owns the top-ranked AI model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of October 2026. Resolution relies on a strict tiebreaking process and specific filter settings, while explicitly excluding AutoEval models.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Baidu occupies first place on the leaderboard based on the highest arena rank. Models marked 'AutoEval' are disregarded regardless of their rank or score. Ties are broken first by underlying Arena score, and finally by alphabetical order of company names. The market resolves to No if another qualifying company occupies first place. It resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. The market is evaluated using the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard under specified filters (style control off, filtered for 'Models'). If unavailable at check time, it remains open until back online.
Key dates
- Check time: — The leaderboard table is checked to determine rankings.
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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