Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$23.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide a precise, objective methodology for determining the outcome. Resolution relies on a specific URL and view of the arena.ai leaderboard checked at a specified date and time (October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET). Explicit settings are required, including turning off style controls, filtering for models, and excluding AutoEval entries. Clear multi-tier tiebreaking rules are outlined down to granular scores and alphabetical ordering, alongside defined contingency procedures if the website is temporarily or permanently offline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a model owned by ByteDance holds the highest arena rank on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of October 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if ByteDance owns the model occupying first place on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard when checked. Models marked AutoEval are excluded. Models are ranked primarily by leaderboard rank, then by Arena score (including granular, unrounded values), and finally by alphabetical order of company names. The market resolves to No if another company owns the top-ranked model. The market resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. The check is performed using the specified arena.ai leaderboard with style control set to None and filtered for Models; if offline at check time, the market remains open until the first check after it returns online.
Key dates
- Leaderboard check time: — Table checked to determine the top-ranked model
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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