Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$116.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules provide highly objective and precise criteria. Resolution depends strictly on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at a specified URL and exact timestamp on October 31, 2026, with defined filters (Adjustments: None, filtered for Models). The rules explicitly exclude models marked AutoEval and lay out clear tiebreakers step-by-step: leaderboard rank first, followed by granular unrounded arena scores, and finally alphabetical order. There is also a clear contingency plan if the website is temporarily or permanently unavailable, leaving minimal room for subjective interpretation or administrative discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Moonshot owns the top-ranked AI model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of October 2026. Resolution depends strictly on leaderboard rankings with specific tiebreaker criteria and the exclusion of AutoEval models.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a model owned by Moonshot holds the highest rank on the designated leaderboard at the check time. Models marked 'AutoEval' are excluded from consideration. Ties are broken first by granular unrounded Arena score, and then by alphabetical order of company names. The market resolves to No if another company's model holds the top spot under these rules. The market resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. The primary deciding source is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard with style control off. If unavailable at check time, the market remains open until it is back online.
Key dates
- Check time: — Leaderboard is checked at 12:00 PM ET to determine the top-ranked model.
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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