Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Current price
0.55¢
−0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.55%
$362.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules precisely define what constitutes the top model by specifying an exact leaderboard URL, designated filter settings, and an explicit check time of October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Subjective interpretation is minimized by excluding AutoEval models and providing a strict tie-breaking sequence that proceeds from leaderboard rank to granular unrounded scores, and ultimately to alphabetical order of company names. A clear fallback mechanism is also established in the event that the primary website is offline at the scheduled resolution time.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI owns the top-ranked model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of October 2026. Resolution depends on specific leaderboard filters, the exclusion of AutoEval models, and multi-step tiebreaker rules.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI owns the highest-ranking model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the check time. It resolves to No if a model owned by any other company holds the first-place position. It resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. The ranking uses the Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard with style control set to None, filtered for Models, and excludes any models marked AutoEval. Rankings are determined primarily by leaderboard rank, followed by granular unrounded Arena score ties, and finally by alphabetical order of company names. The designated source is arena.ai Text Arena (Overall); if offline at the check time, the market remains open until the leaderboard is accessible.
Key dates
- Check time: — The leaderboard is checked at 12:00 PM ET to determine the rankings.
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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