Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$5.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide an exact methodology and a specific URL to determine resolution. The market checks the Text Arena leaderboard on arena.ai at precisely October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET with explicit filter settings (style control off, filtered for Models, excluding AutoEval entries). Concrete tiebreakers are defined step-by-step down to alphabetical ordering, and explicit fallback procedures are provided if the site is temporarily or permanently offline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a model owned by Microsoft ranks first on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard on October 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a model owned by Microsoft holds the first-place ranking on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the designated check time. It resolves to No if a model owned by any other company holds the first-place position. It resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. The ranking uses the Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard with style control off and filtered for Models, excluding any models marked AutoEval. Ties are broken first by unrounded Arena score, then by alphabetical order of the company names. Resolution is decided by arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard data checked at the specified time.
Key dates
- Leaderboard check time: — The leaderboard table is checked at 12:00 PM ET to determine the winning model.
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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