Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$4.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide an exceptionally detailed and objective resolution framework. The deciding source is a specific leaderboard URL on arena.ai with explicit filtering criteria (Adjustments: None, filtered for Models, excluding AutoEval entries). The resolution timing is pinned to an exact timestamp (October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET). Edge cases are thoroughly addressed: tied ranks fall back to granular arena scores, followed by an alphabetical tiebreaker, and website downtime is handled with clear delay and fallback procedures. The only potential surprise is the arbitrary alphabetical tiebreaker, but overall discretionary judgment is virtually eliminated.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Meituan owns the top-ranked model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard on October 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Meituan owns the model ranked first on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the check time. It resolves to No if another company owns the first-place model. It resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. Models marked "AutoEval" are excluded from consideration. Rankings rely on leaderboard rank, followed by unrounded Arena score ties, and finally alphabetical company name order. If the leaderboard is offline at check time, resolution waits until it is back online. Resolution is decided by the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard.
Key dates
- Leaderboard check time: — Leaderboard under the Text Arena (Overall) tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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