Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Current price
70.75¢
−6.9¢ · 24h
Implied probability 70.75%
$606.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market defines exact, objective criteria for resolution based on a specific leaderboard URL (arena.ai Text Arena Overall with style control off and filtered for Models) at an exact date and time (October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET). The rules explicitly detail exclusions (AutoEval models are disregarded) and provide a strict tie-breaking sequence from rank to unrounded score down to alphabetical order of company names. Contingency procedures are clearly outlined if the website is temporarily or permanently offline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Google owns the top-ranked AI model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of October 2026. A distinctive aspect is the explicit tiebreaking procedure using granular scores followed by alphabetical company order, alongside the strict exclusion of models marked 'AutoEval'.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Google owns the highest-ranked model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the check time. Models marked 'AutoEval' are excluded from consideration. Ties are broken first by underlying unrounded Arena score, then alphabetically by company name. The market resolves to No if a model owned by another company holds the top spot under these rules. The market resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. The primary resolution source is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard with style control set to None and filtered for Models, checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET or upon its return if temporarily offline.
Key dates
- Check time: — Leaderboard is checked at 12:00 PM ET to determine the top-ranked model.
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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