Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$151.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide an exact, objective resolution mechanism by identifying a specific leaderboard URL (arena.ai Text Arena Overall without style control), precise filter criteria, and an exact timestamp of October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Clear explicit rules govern edge cases, such as excluding models tagged with AutoEval, resolving ties via unrounded granular Arena scores followed by alphabetical ordering, and handling temporary or permanent website downtime. Because every step of the verification process relies on automated metrics from a single specified source rather than subjective judgement, there is minimal resolution risk.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether an AI model owned by Alibaba achieves the highest rank on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of October 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if an AI model owned by Alibaba occupies first place on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard when checked. Models marked AutoEval are disregarded regardless of rank or score. It resolves to No if a model owned by another company occupies first place. Rankings rely primarily on leaderboard rank with style control off and filtered for Models, with ties broken by granular Arena score, then alphabetical order of company names. It resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. The market is determined using data from the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard. If the site is down at check time, the market remains open until it is back online.
Key dates
- Leaderboard check time: — Table checked under the Leaderboard tab at 12:00 PM ET
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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