Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Current price
0.3¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.3%
$337.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly specify a single named website, exact URL, specific leaderboard view, and precise filter settings (style control off, filtered for models). The observation timestamp is fixed to October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The rules also provide explicit instructions to exclude AutoEval models and establish a clear step-by-step tie-breaking procedure down to unrounded Arena scores and alphabetical order, as well as fallback provisions if the leaderboard is temporarily or permanently offline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Meta owns the highest-ranking AI model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of October 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a model owned by Meta holds first place on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the check time. It resolves to No if a model owned by a different company holds first place. It resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. The ranking uses the Rank column with style control set to None and filtered for Models, disregarding any models marked AutoEval. Ties are broken first by underlying unrounded Arena score, then by alphabetical order of the company name. The evaluation is determined by checking the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard; if unavailable at the designated time, the market waits until it returns online.
Key dates
- Check time: — The leaderboard is checked at 12:00 PM ET to determine the top-ranked model.
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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