Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Current price
27.5¢
+6.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 27.5%
$610.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly operationalize what constitutes the best model by pointing to a specific URL on arena.ai (Text Arena Overall with style control turned off and filtered for Models) at an exact timestamp on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The rules detail how ties are broken using unrounded granular scores and alphabetical ordering of company names, explicitly exclude models marked AutoEval, and provide straightforward fallback procedures if the leaderboard is temporarily or permanently offline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic owns the highest-ranked AI model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of October 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Anthropic (or Yes) if a model owned by Anthropic holds the first-place arena rank on the specified arena.ai leaderboard at check time. It resolves to another company (or No) if another company's model holds first place. Models marked "AutoEval" are completely excluded from consideration. Rankings use the "Rank" column with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models". Ties are broken first by granular unrounded Arena score, and then alphabetically by company name. The market resolves to "Other" if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. The deciding source is arena.ai Text Arena (Overall), checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET (or upon first availability if temporarily offline).
Key dates
- Check Time: — Leaderboard is checked to determine the top-ranked model.
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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