Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$925.5 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules provide clear and highly specific operational criteria for resolving the market. Resolution is anchored to a direct URL at an exact timestamp, specifies exact table filters and adjustments, excludes AutoEval models, and includes a precise multi-step tiebreaker mechanism. Outage contingencies are well-defined without leaving room for decider latitude.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Thinky owns the top-ranked AI model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of October 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Thinky owns the model with the highest arena rank on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the check time. Models marked 'AutoEval' are excluded. Ties are broken first by unrounded Arena score, then by alphabetical order of company names. The market resolves to No if another company owns the first-place model. The market resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. If the source is temporarily unavailable at check time, resolution is delayed until it comes back online. The designated deciding source is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard.
Key dates
- Leaderboard check time: — The leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.