What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
10 live outcomes · highest priced: 3.5% at 2% · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $7.1M total volume
About this event
This event tracks the level of the Federal Reserve's target interest rate at the end of 2026. Markets measure the specific rate value by focusing on the upper bound of the target federal funds range following the Federal Open Market Committee's December 2026 meeting.
How the outcomes relate
Each market corresponds to a specific interest rate level or interval. Because resolution rounds the upper bound of the target federal funds range to the nearest 25 basis points (rounding away from zero if exactly halfway), only one outcome representing that resulting value can resolve Yes, while all other outcomes resolve No.
How it resolves
Each market resolves Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range, rounded to the nearest 25 basis points (rounding away from zero if exactly between options), matches the market's specified rate following the December 2026 FOMC meeting. It resolves No otherwise. Resolution can occur immediately once the FOMC's December statement is released. If no decision is issued by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, it resolves based on the rate in effect at that time. Resolution is based on official Federal Reserve information.
Key dates
- December 2026 FOMC meeting: — Scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
- Resolution fallback deadline: — December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET if no FOMC decision is issued.
Resolution source
Official information from the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5% | 2% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| 3.25% | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| 1.25 | <1% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| 2.25% | <1% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| 2.5% | <1% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| 3.0% | <1% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| 1.75% | <1% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| 2.0% | <1% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| 2.75% | <1% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| 1.5% | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| 3.75% | — | — | Low | Med | |
| 4.0% | — | — | Low | Low | |
| 4.25% | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| ≥ 4.5% | — | — | Low | Low | |
| ≤1.0% | — | — | Low | Med |