Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?
Current price
0.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$271.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market relies on official published decisions directly from the Federal Reserve website. The target metric is precisely defined as the upper bound of the target federal funds range following the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Clear guidelines are provided for timing, including early resolution upon publication of the meeting statement and a fallback to the prevailing rate as of December 31, 2026, if no meeting statement is released. An explicit rounding convention to the nearest 25 basis points with a tie-breaking rule ensures there is minimal room for dispute or interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range will be 2.0% following the December 2026 FOMC meeting, with rounding rules applied to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range after the December 2026 FOMC meeting rounds to 2.0%. The market resolves to No if the upper bound rounds to any other value. For resolution, the upper bound is rounded to the nearest 25 basis points, with values falling exactly halfway between options rounded away from zero. The market resolves immediately after the December meeting statement is issued, or based on the prevailing rate as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET if no statement has been issued by then. Resolution is decided using official information from the Federal Reserve.
Key dates
- FOMC Meeting: — Scheduled start of the December 2026 FOMC meeting
- FOMC Meeting End: — Scheduled conclusion of the December 2026 FOMC meeting
- Fallback Cutoff: — Resolution evaluated at 11:59 PM ET if no December meeting decision is issued
Resolution source
Federal Reserve
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