Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
Current price
1.55¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.55%
$208.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has clear and objective resolution criteria based directly on official statements from the Federal Reserve. The metric is explicitly defined as the upper bound of the target range, with a specific rounding rule provided for edge cases. Resolution occurs promptly following the December 2026 FOMC meeting, with a definitive fallback deadline of December 31, 2026, leaving minimal room for ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate will be 3.5% following the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Resolution relies on rounding the upper bound to the nearest 25 basis points, with exact midpoints rounding away from zero.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range, rounded to the nearest 25 basis points (rounding away from zero if tied), is 3.5% after the December 2026 FOMC meeting. The market resolves to No if the resulting rounded upper bound is any other value. If no FOMC decision for the December meeting is issued by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves based on the upper bound in effect at that time. Resolution is determined by official information from the Federal Reserve.
Key dates
- December FOMC Meeting: — FOMC meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026
- Resolution Fallback Deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET if no December meeting decision is issued
Resolution source
Federal Reserve
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