Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?
Current price
0.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$155.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the target metric as the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target range following the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Resolution relies on an official primary source from the Federal Reserve website, with explicit fallback timing to December 31, 2026, and clear rounding mechanics if the rate falls between standard intervals.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate will be 1.75% following the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Resolution incorporates standard rounding to the nearest 25 basis points, rounding away from zero in exact ties.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range is 1.75% following the December 2026 FOMC meeting statement. The market resolves No if the rate is any other value. For resolution, the upper bound is rounded to the nearest 25 basis points, rounding away from zero if it falls exactly between two options. If no FOMC decision is issued by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves based on the upper bound in effect at that time. Official information from the Federal Reserve determines the outcome.
Key dates
- December FOMC Meeting: — The FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
- Resolution Fallback Deadline: — If no December FOMC decision is issued by 11:59 PM ET, the rate at this time determines resolution.
Resolution source
Federal Reserve
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