Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?
Current price
0.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$95K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that the outcome depends on the upper bound of the target federal funds range established by the Federal Open Market Committee following its December 2026 meeting. An official Federal Reserve URL is provided as the resolution source, leaving no room for subjective interpretation. A specific fallback date of December 31, 2026, handles potential delays in the meeting statement, and clear mathematical rounding instructions are defined in the event of an unconventional rate range.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate will be 2.25% following the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Resolution relies on rounding the rate to the nearest 25 basis points, rounding away from zero in exact ties.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range, rounded to the nearest 25 basis points (rounding away from zero if exactly halfway), is 2.25% after the December 2026 FOMC meeting. The market resolves to No if the rounded upper bound is any other value. If no FOMC decision for the December meeting is issued by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves based on the upper bound in effect at that time. The primary deciding source is official information from the Federal Reserve.
Key dates
- FOMC December Meeting: — Meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, after which the statement is typically issued.
- Fallback Resolution Deadline: — Market resolves using the prevailing rate if no December FOMC decision has been issued by this time.
Resolution source
Official information from the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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