Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?
Current price
0.4¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.4%
$155.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on a clearly designated official source, the Federal Reserve, to determine the target federal funds range following the December 2026 meeting. The rules clearly define how the metric is calculated, specify an explicit rounding rule to the nearest 25 basis points (including tie-breaking away from zero), and provide a fixed fallback deadline of December 31, 2026, if the statement is delayed. There is minimal ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate will be 1.25% at the end of 2026, with a specific rounding rule applied to the rate.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range is 1.25% after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The upper bound will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution. If the upper bound falls exactly between two options, it will be rounded away from zero. The market resolves No if the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range is not 1.25% after the December 2026 FOMC meeting, applying the same rounding rules. The market may resolve immediately after the FOMC’s December meeting statement is issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The Federal Reserve is the deciding source.
Key dates
- Scheduled December 2026 FOMC Meeting: — The FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
- Final Resolution Deadline: — If no FOMC decision is issued by this date and time, the market resolves based on the rate at that time.
Resolution source
official information from the Federal Reserve
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