Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?
Current price
0.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$181.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies directly on official announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding the upper bound of the target federal funds range following the December 2026 FOMC meeting. The rules clearly define the metric, designate the official Federal Reserve website as the authoritative source, and include a clear fallback cutoff of December 31, 2026, if no decision is released. Clear rounding instructions are also specified for non-standard target rates, leaving virtually no room for subjective interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range will be 2.5% following the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Resolution applies rounding to the nearest 25 basis points, rounding away from zero in exact ties.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range equals 2.5% after the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Values are rounded to the nearest 25 basis points, with exact midpoints rounded away from zero. The market resolves No if the rounded upper bound is any other value. If no FOMC decision is issued by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves based on the prevailing rate at that deadline. The primary deciding source is official information from the Federal Reserve.
Key dates
- FOMC meeting dates: — Scheduled dates for the December 2026 FOMC meeting (December 8-9, 2026).
- Decision deadline: — Fallback resolution deadline if no meeting statement is released.
Resolution source
Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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