Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$152.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market relies on official monetary policy releases directly from the Federal Reserve following the December 2026 FOMC meeting. The rules explicitly define the target metric as the upper bound of the target range, provide clear rounding and tie-breaking specifications to 25 basis points, and establish a clear fallback timestamp of December 31, 2026, if no meeting decision is published.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range will be 1.5% following the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Resolution includes a specific rounding rule to the nearest 25 basis points, rounding away from zero in exact ties.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range, rounded to the nearest 25 basis points (rounding away from zero if exactly between options), is 1.5% after the December 2026 FOMC meeting statement. The market resolves to No if the upper bound rounds to any other value. If no FOMC decision for the December meeting is issued by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, resolution uses the upper bound in effect at that time. Official information from the Federal Reserve decides the outcome.
Key dates
- FOMC meeting: — Scheduled start of the December 2026 FOMC meeting.
- FOMC meeting conclusion: — Scheduled end of the December 2026 FOMC meeting.
- Fallback cutoff: — Cutoff at 11:59 PM ET if no December meeting decision is issued.
Resolution source
Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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