Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines how the outcome will be measured, linking directly to the official Federal Reserve website as the sole resolution source. It specifies that the target rate will be taken from the statement issued after the December 2026 FOMC meeting, with a clear year-end fallback deadline of December 31, 2026, if no statement is released. Explicit rounding rules (to the nearest 25 basis points, rounding away from zero in case of a tie) prevent boundary ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate will be 4.0% following the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Resolution includes a rounding rule where rates are rounded to the nearest 25 basis points, rounding away from zero in exact ties.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range after the December 2026 FOMC meeting rounds to 4.0%. The rate is rounded to the nearest 25 basis points, rounding away from zero if it falls exactly between two options. The market resolves to No if the resulting rounded rate is any value other than 4.0%. If no FOMC decision for the December meeting is issued by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves based on the upper bound in effect at that time. Official information from the Federal Reserve decides the outcome.
Key dates
- December FOMC meeting: — Scheduled dates are December 8-9, 2026
- Decision cutoff date: — Cutoff at 11:59 PM ET if no December meeting decision is issued
Resolution source
Federal Reserve official information
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