Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on a clearly defined official metric from a named institutional source, the Federal Reserve. The rules specify that the upper bound of the target federal funds range will be taken following the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, or as of December 31, 2026 if no meeting statement has been issued by year-end. Explicit rounding conventions are provided to resolve any potential half-step values. Because the source is an official government publication with objective figures and a direct URL, there is virtually no room for interpretive discretion or ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range will be at least 4.5% after the December 2026 FOMC meeting or at the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range is greater than or equal to 4.5%. It resolves to No if the upper bound is strictly less than 4.5%. For resolution, the upper bound is rounded to the nearest 25 basis points, with values falling exactly halfway rounded away from zero. The rate is evaluated immediately after the December 2026 FOMC meeting statement is issued. If no FOMC decision is issued by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, resolution uses the rate in effect at that time. The primary deciding source is official information from the Federal Reserve.
Key dates
- FOMC Meeting Start: — Start of the scheduled December 2026 FOMC meeting.
- FOMC Meeting End: — End of the scheduled December 2026 FOMC meeting.
- Fallback Evaluation Deadline: — Target federal funds rate is evaluated at this time if no December FOMC decision statement is issued.
Resolution source
Federal Reserve
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