Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?
Last captured price
0.75¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.75%
$273.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify that the outcome relies directly on the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range following the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Official statements from the Federal Reserve website serve as the primary source, eliminating decider discretion. Clear timing conditions allow resolution immediately following the FOMC meeting statement or as of December 31, 2026, if no statement is released. Explicit rounding rules are provided for any non-standard rate increments.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range is 1.0% or lower following the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Rates are rounded to the nearest 25 basis points, rounding away from zero if exactly halfway between increments.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range is 1.0% or lower after the December 2026 FOMC meeting. For resolution, the upper bound is rounded to the nearest 25 basis points, with exact midpoints rounded away from zero. The market resolves to No if the rounded upper bound is greater than 1.0%. If the FOMC does not issue a decision for the December 2026 meeting by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves based on the upper bound in place at that deadline. Resolution is determined by official information published by the Federal Reserve.
Key dates
- December 2026 FOMC meeting: — Scheduled for December 8-9, 2026; market may resolve immediately after the meeting statement.
- Resolution fallback deadline: — Upper bound evaluated as of this time if no December FOMC decision is issued.
Resolution source
Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.